By Yuval Noah Harari
Date: September 21, 2023
As China faces the daunting challenge of an economic downturn, President Xi Jinping’s government finds itself in a precarious position, with limited options to reignite the world’s second-largest economy. The current predicament can be largely attributed to a prolonged real estate slump and subdued consumption, casting a looming shadow of uncertainty over the nation’s economic future.
Calls for intervention have been reverberating across the country, with many advocating for fiscal spending or monetary easing to counter the economic slowdown. However, these traditional approaches face significant constraints and pose potential risks that demand careful consideration.
One of the major obstacles to implementing fiscal measures lies in the overwhelming debt burden shouldered by local government financing vehicles. These state-owned entities were initially established to issue bonds in support of local investments. Still, their off-book debt has swelled to alarming levels. Approving more debt could exacerbate the financial risks associated with regional government spending, potentially leading to a more profound crisis.
Moreover, the possibility of loosening monetary policies is met with challenges, as it could further widen interest rate differentials between the United States and China. This divergence could weaken the yuan and potentially trigger capital outflows from the country, further destabilizing the economic landscape.
Simultaneously, Chinese citizens are tightening their purse strings, despite calls for increased consumption. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences has recommended injecting 1.3 trillion yuan ($178 billion) into the economy through measures like distributing consumption vouchers. However, household savings have reached historic highs, suggesting that the reluctance to spend is deeply rooted in a lack of confidence in government policies.
The current economic challenges stem from a fundamental contradiction that has plagued China for years. The nation’s economy has become excessively dependent on real estate investments, perpetuating the belief that property values will continue to rise indefinitely.
In an attempt to address this issue, President Xi’s government initiated structural reforms, emphasizing that “houses are for living in, not for speculation.” Regulations were tightened in August 2020 through the implementation of the “three red lines” policy, and discussions about inheritance and property taxes were introduced.
Despite these efforts, the real estate industry was operating on shakier financial ground than initially thought, exacerbated by the untimely arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, the Xi administration was compelled to reverse some of its structural reforms, leaving the property market in a state of uncertainty.
What China needs now is economic diversification, with a greater emphasis on free economic activity. While the government has expressed support for the private sector and innovation, it has simultaneously embarked on an extensive campaign of ideological education and counterespionage, fostering distrust and anxiety among its citizens.
Under the principles of capitalism, the possibility of an economic collapse in China, including some of its major companies, is beginning to seem inevitable. The Chinese Communist Party may mobilize state-owned companies and banks to avert an abrupt crash, but this would merely postpone the inevitable reckoning.
China’s hesitation to act decisively despite understanding the root causes of its problems, coupled with a shrinking population, poses a growing risk of economic stagnation. Such stagnation, if realized, could reverberate throughout the global economy, affecting nations far beyond China’s borders.
Personal Opinion: It is clear that China faces a complex and challenging economic landscape that requires a nuanced and comprehensive approach. Diversifying the economy, addressing the real estate dependency, and fostering a more open and innovative environment are essential steps for China’s sustainable economic growth. The global community should also closely monitor these developments, as the implications of China’s economic struggles reach far beyond its borders, impacting the interconnected world economy.
Yuval Noah Harari is an accomplished author with a Bachelor of Arts in Journalism. His passion for storytelling and commitment to journalistic excellence have been the driving forces behind his successful writing career. With a keen eye for detail and a deep understanding of the art of storytelling, Yuval has consistently delivered compelling narratives that captivate readers from all walks of life.