Experts Reveal Incredible Growth Prediction for China’s GDP This Year
After easing its strict Covid restrictions, China’s economy could potentially experience a growth rate exceeding 5%. The country’s recent factory data demonstrated the highest figures in nearly 11 years, indicating the possibility of continued economic recovery. In 2022, Beijing aims for a 5.5% growth rate, but the impact of Covid restrictions and a decline in the real estate market have impeded progress, with last year’s GDP only growing by 3%.
This coming Sunday, it is anticipated that the Chinese government will announce a GDP growth target of at least 5% for the year. According to Societe Generale, “China’s GDP growth is likely to improve this year due to a potential resurgence in the housing market (as well as the departure from its ‘zero Covid’ policy).” The bank has the highest forecast among firms surveyed by CNBC, with an expected GDP growth rate of 5.8%.
| Societe Generale | 5.80% |
|---|---|
| Citi | 5.70% |
| Morgan Stanley | 5.70% |
| HSBC | 5.60% |
| JPMorgan | 5.60% |
| Goldman Sachs | 5.50% |
| BofA | 5.50% |
| Nomura | 5.30% |
| IMF | 5.20% |
| Credit Suisse | 5.10% |
| Moody’s | 5.00% |
| Fitch Ratings | 5.00% |
| ING | 5.00% |
| UBS | 4.90% |
| S&P | 4.80% |
| Oxford Economics | 4.50% |
| BNP Paribas | 4.50% |
According to an analysis by CNBC, the average prediction among economists is a little higher than the official target, standing at 5.21%. One of the more negative projections comes from Oxford Economics, which forecasts a 4.5% increase.
Louise Loo, the lead economist at Oxford Economics, commented that with the current tailwinds of reopening, policymakers might not feel compelled to take drastic measures, such as enacting a huge stimulus package like in past easing cycles, particularly given the already heavily stretched public finances in the previous year.
Source: cnbc
